NO STORM WARNING. No storm warning is currently active for the forecast area.

A broad subtropical ridge over the central and eastern Atlantic maintains a weak to moderate pressure gradient and light to moderate ENE to E trade winds across the Guianas marine domain. The ITCZ axis lies on the northern edge of Suriname, at roughly 5–6°N near 55°W, effectively along the coastline, and rises north-eastward to about 8–10°N near 45°W, where it merges with the monsoon trough. A tropical wave along 44°W, south of 19°N, is moving west at 10–15 kt with a weak 1009 hPa low near 11°N on its axis; its axis is expected to reach about 48°W near 12 UTC on 13 October, at the start of the validity period, and about 53°W near 12 UTC on 14 October, so it crosses the offshore area during the validity period and approaches the coast around the end of it. A second, stronger wave near 30°W, with a 1010 hPa low near 15°N, is far east of the area. Precipitable water is high (55–65 mm) along the ITCZ and ahead of the 44°W wave east of about 50°W, and moderate (40–50 mm) near the coast. Scattered to numerous moderate showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are expected along the ITCZ between 05°N and 12°N, mainly east of 50°W, while deep convective potential over the immediate coastal waters is limited (low instability), partly because of the strong El Niño background. Combined seas of 1.0–2.0 m are mainly wind waves with a low, long-period northeasterly swell from the central North Atlantic.

Between 1200UTC October 13, 2026 and 1200UTC October 14, 2026 North of 08N: ENE to E trade winds, light to moderate (Bft 3–4), with a moderate chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 05N and 12N, increasing east of 50W as the 44°W tropical wave approaches, with brief squally gusts (locally Bft 6) in the more organized cells. North of 13N conditions are mostly settled with isolated showers. South of 08N (coastal waters): ENE to E by day with a sea-breeze veer near the coast by mid-afternoon; partly cloudy, with a moderate risk of afternoon showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the coastal sea-breeze front, with the ITCZ lying along the coast, becoming ESE to E overnight with scattered showers nearshore.